National Bureau of Economic Research | NBER
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Business Cycle Dating | NBER
The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of US business cycles. The chronology identifies the months of peaks and troughs of economic activity. Expansions are the periods between a trough and a peak; recessions are the periods between a peak and a trough. By convention, the NBER classifies the peak month as the last ...
Working Papers | NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research
The NBER distributes more than 1,200 Working Papers each year. Papers issued more than 18 months ago are open access. More recent papers are available without charge to affiliates of subscribing academic institutions, employees of NBER Corporate Associates, government employees in the US, journalists, and residents of low-income countries.
How the US-China Trade War Affected the Rest of the World
U pendin g a decades-long effort to reduce global trade barriers, China and the United States began mutually escalating tariffs on $450 billion in trade flows in 2018 and 2019. These tariff increases reduced trade between the US and China, but little is known about how trade was affected in the rest of the world. In The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations (NBER Working Paper 29562 ...
Unpacking the Causes of Pandemic-Era Inflation in the US
The annual inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, was 1.7 percent in February 2021 but rose to more than 5 percent in June 2021. It continued rising for another year, peaking at about 9 percent in June 2022. The rise in the inflation rate has been attributed to many factors. The US response to the COVID-19 pandemic included a ...
Research | NBER
Since World War II, the Federal Reserve’s most effective campaigns against inflation have been characterized by clear-cut goals, a willingness to accept higher unemployment, and a refusal to give up prematurely.In Lessons from History for Successful Disinflation (NBER Working Paper 32666), Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer study nine attempts by the Federal Reserve between 1946 and 2016 ...
Conferences | NBER
Conferences. The NBER convenes over 120 meetings each year at which researchers share and discuss their latest findings and launch new projects. The Summer Institute, a collection of nearly 50 smaller meetings, is held annually in July.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change over Time and Space
Jan 5, 2022 — By Klaus Desmet and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. Climate change is an unintended consequence of the industrialization of the world economy. The evidence that human activity has released large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, leading to rising global temperatures, is by now uncontroversial. However, so far, the scientific and political recognition ...
Wealth Inequality in the United States - NBER
Jun 30, 2021 — However, from 2016 to 2019 there was actually a small decline in inequality, with the top percentile share down by 1.4 percentage points, the Gini coefficient down by 0.008, and the mean wealth of the top 1 percent down by 1.9 percent. Another notable trend is the sharp increase in relative debt after 1983, with the debt-income and the debt-net ...
The Benefits of Rehabilitative Incarceration | NBER
Apr 6, 2020 — Figure 2. In Norway, the average time spent in prison is a little over six months, which is similar to most other Western European countries. This contrasts with average US prison time of almost three years, which is in large part the reason the United States is an outlier in its incarceration rate compared with the rest of the world [Figure 1].