Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election over the last half-century, except for the race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore. ◾ The White House party gained House seats during the midterm elections.

Consult poll, published on Tuesday, showed one candidate had taken a six-point lead in the 2024 presidential election race.