Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (SF Fed) works to advance the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build a stronger economy for all Americans. As part of the U.S. central ...

Community Engagement and Analysis works to understand the economic experiences of lower-income households and communities to help build a stronger economy for all Americans. ENGAGE: We engage our ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Temporary layoffs accounted for essentially the entire increase in unemployment to its historically high rate in April 2020. Although the rate has come down since its peak, unemployment remains well ...

Download PDF (pdf, 1.0 mb) Download Chart Data (Excel document, 130 kb) Summary The 2019 Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Diary) highlights findings from the fifth Diary study conducted by the ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

Monetary policy is often regarded as having only temporary effects on the economy, moderating the expansions and contractions that make up the business cycle. However, it is possible for monetary ...

The results suggest that future changes in climate will increase exposure to extreme heat for outdoor workers in the United States. The number of days above 25°C for these workers rises substantially ...

An enduring consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is a notable shift toward remote and hybrid work. This has raised questions regarding whether the shift had a significant effect on the growth rate of ...

The labor force participation (LFP) rate for prime-age workers surged from early 2021 through early 2023, especially for women. This helped reduce the large shortfall of available workers relative to ...

Despite a sharp spike in unemployment since March 2020, aggregate wage growth has accelerated. This acceleration has been almost entirely attributable to job losses among low-wage workers. Wage growth ...